Прогноз Центробанка по инфляции на конец года понижен с 7−8% до 6−7%
25 июля Банк России понизил ключевую ставку до 18%. Это второе подряд снижение, что само по себе уже хорошо. Многие аналитики прогнозировали, что так всё и произойдет. Но по конкретике прогнозы разнились — кто-то считал, что понижение будет лишь до 19%, кто-то рассчитывал даже на 17%.
До этого, напомним, ключевая ставка составляла 20%, а ранее была еще выше. Отталкиваясь от ключевой ставки Банка России, коммерческие банки страны устанавливали заоблачные процентные ставки по кредитам — для бизнеса и граждан.
Доходило до 30% и более. Бизнес неоднократно называл такие условия кредитования одной из главных причин остановки роста производства. Что же изменится теперь?
Центробанк в своем релизе отметил, что инфляционное давление снижается быстрее, чем прогнозировалось ранее. Рост спроса замедляется, экономика «возвращается к траектории сбалансированного роста».
Но дальнейшие действия Банка России по ключевой ставке будут зависеть «от устойчивости замедления инфляции и динамики инфляционных ожиданий».
Прогноз Центробанка по инфляции на конец года понижен с 7−8% до 6−7%. Прогноз по средней ключевой ставке на 2026 год в целом оптимистичен — 12−13%. Однако до 2026 года еще нужно дожить. Между тем экономика страны находится в крайне сложном положении.
Новая ставка 18% остается слишком высокой планкой для долгосрочных инвестиционных проектов, хотя снижение ставки само по себе все-таки создает более предсказуемую траекторию для планирования бизнеса.
Первая реакция российских инвесторов на небольшое понижение снижение ставки оказалась умеренно негативная. Индекс Мосбиржи опустился ниже отметки 2800 пунктов. Участники торгов предпочли зафиксировать прибыль.
Бизнес тоже не спешит радоваться. Президент Уральского экономического союза Олег Витковский в беседе с корреспондентом «Свободной прессы» печально размышляет:
— Ничего хорошего не сулит такое снижение ставки. Будет то же самое: что 20%, что 18%. Рассчитывали, что процентов на 5 ставку скинут. А на деле получается, что снижают на 1% в месяц. А это как для мертвого припарки.
«СП»: Неужели совсем ничего не изменится?
— Может, кто-то и снизит ставку по кредитам процента на 3. Но это же капля в море.
«СП»: Если на 5% снизят ставку, это даст реальное облегчение для бизнеса?
— Ну это хотя бы даст надежду, что мы откатимся к концу года на прежние условия. Люди и бизнес будут хоть что-то планировать на следующий год.
Видимо, Витковский прав. И снижение банковских ставок по кредитам пока будет небольшим. Однако хорошо уже, что процесс идет.
Ранее после понижения ключевой ставки до 20% часть банков снизила ставки по рыночной ипотеке, в отдельных случаях на 3,5 пункта.
Видимо, и сейчас возможна такая же реакция кредитных организаций. И это позволит хотя бы немного оживить рынок.
Глава Российского фонда прямых инвестиций (РФПИ) Кирилл Дмитриев назвал сегодняшнее снижение ключевой ставки хорошим сигналом для бизнеса и высказал надежду на дальнейшее смягчение денежно-кредитной политики регулятора.
Следующее заседание Совета директоров Банка России по ключевой ставке запланировано на 12 сентября. Ждем-с.
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